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By Robert A. Levine

The writer combines macroeconomic heritage because the nice melancholy with a quick exposition of financial thought that stems from and explains that background, and explores how that have may possibly practice to the current fiscal challenge. He warns that we may possibly back be headed for stagflation and makes feedback for escaping the worst results of the difficulty.

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Observation of, and data from, the real world are necessary to convert the theory to policy. This paper reads inductively so that it can be followed by noneconomists. It is intended to synthesize classical economics and the deductive theories of Keynes and others, and to apply them to observations of the real economies of the United States and the rest of the world, in order to explain the history of the past 70 years and project future possibilities.

They prefer instead to examine economic history and current events and obtain their insights in that way. I am an economist trained in deduction; I apply my training to policy analysis. My own view is eclectic, valuing both induction and deduction. Induction is necessary to convert deductive theory into something useful to policymakers in the real world. 1 The most important example of such synthesis in this paper concerns Adam Smith’s theory of comparative advantage. Comparative advantage, accepted in its pure form by almost all economists, points out that countries are best off producing those goods and services they make most efficiently compared with other products made in the same country, and trading the less-efficient products for the ones that other countries produce more efficiently.

In the real-world histories and projections of this paper, China and India and others are beginning to produce goods and services with a different mix of efficiency than had been the case. China, for example, used to export low-cost agricultural goods and textiles and import heavy manufactured goods from the developed world. That is changing: Now China produces and is beginning to export automobiles, and the comparative advantage of the United States and some of the rest of the developed world is increasingly in high-tech goods and services.

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